After a brilliant unbeaten January and a largely satisfying February, the wheels have come off a bit for Leyton Orient.
We enter the ides of March on the heels of three straight goalless games for the O’s, including Tuesday night’s turgid performance against Port Vale, with offence harder to find than Kate Middleton’s whereabouts.
And yet, and yet, despite the recent slide, our O’s still find themselves just six points out of the promotion playoffs, with their biggest matches ahead of them, including a head-to-head biggie at Stevenage on Saturday.
Ok, Leyton Orient would need to pass up four teams to claim that sixth and final playoff spot, so they’ll not only need to take care of their own business but also get some help from other teams. It’s probably a relatively slim prospect, given the squad’s recent form.
But still, to even be in the fringes of promotion consideration at this point, when many of us entered the season hoping just to avoid a relegation battle and the club itself was calibrating fan expectations for a “middle 8” finish, is remarkable.
In the final analysis of the year, we may look back on the January transfer window as a missed opportunity, and we will definitely rue the injuries that have disproportionately struck our starting lineup. We will wonder how things might have played out if manager Richie Wellens had his entire first choice XI at his disposal, with Jordan Graham and Theo Archibald menacing defences from the wing, striker Dan Agyei scoring and winding up opposing fans, and Dan Happe patrolling the defence at centreback.
I think we are all salivating at the thought of those four returning to public service next season and pushing us over the top, but in the here and now, Wellens is having to field a squad that skews significantly towards youth and inexperience, which comes with occasional moments of brilliance but also inconsistency.
Strengthening the squad
The silver lining is that young guys like Jordan Brown, Ollie O’Neill, Max Sanders, Ethan Galbraith and Brandon Cooper are getting plenty of experience down the stretch, which should hopefully prepare them for next season’s rigours.
But the summer will also come with the reality that the squad is likely to suffer major losses at key positions this summer, particularly with our loanees Sol Brynn, Idris El-Mizouni and Shaq Forde, who have played massive roles in getting the O’s up to the unexpectedly lofty position they’re currently in.
Our best chance at retaining them would probably be to win promotion to the Championship, which will presumably come with an expanded player budget that could allow Leyton Orient to either buy them outright from their parent clubs or entice them to return at a higher level of competition.
Otherwise, Ipswich Town is likely to look to cash in on El-Mizouni’s numerous suitors, while Watford and Middlesbrough may recall Forde and Brynn, respectively, if they are deemed to have “graduated” from League One play.
As well, numerous players will be out of contract this summer, including Happe, Ruel Sotiriou, Tom James and Rob Hunt, to name a few. Archibald also is in need of a new contract, though as he is rehabbing from his knee surgery, the club have indicated that he will be offered a deal to return.
However you might feel about the various merits and demerits of those players, it will be interesting to see who is re-signed and what replacements come in.
At Wellens’ Q&A hosted by the Leyton Orient Fans Trust back in November, I asked the manager what it would take from a squad-building perspective to meet the board’s goals of becoming a sustainable Championship-level club, and he said that the next three or four transfer windows would be critical.
The lesson from the recent January window is that depth is absolutely vital. Injuries can’t always be predicted, and the O’s seem to have been struck by an untimely series of them, but the club’s backroom staff might be faulted for not being sufficiently prepared with Plan Bs and Plan Cs. As a result, we have a current squad with no competition for spots at centreback and wing, and the players’ March performances have shown clear signs of mental and physical fatigue.
Let’s hope the transfer staff approach the summer window with sound recruitment to not only raise the technical calibre of the squad but also boost the second XI and even the third XI. Otherwise, the O’s will be relying on several top players coming off significant injuries, which seems a big risk.
The home straight
But that’s for the summer! We still have a playoff race and plenty of scoreboard watching to do for this season.
Our O’s make the short trip to Stevenage to face a physical, experienced team that has given Leyton Orient a bullocking in recent matchups. This is your proverbial “six-pointer”, with Boro currently holding the last playoff spot. A loss would almost certainly extinguish Orient’s flickering flames of promotion, while a win would be a massive injection of oxygen.
Let’s look at the final fixtures for all the teams vying for that sixth playoff berth, in order of table position–
Stevenage: Leyton Orient (h), Carlisle (a), Bolton (h), Charlton (a), Exeter City (a), Barnsley (h), Burton Albion (h), Oxford United (a), Cheltenham (h)
Blackpool: Wigan Athletic (a), Derby County (a), Wycombe (h), Cambridge (h), Fleetwood (h), Carlisle (a), Barnsley (h), Reading (a)
Oxford United: Port Vale (a), Lincoln City (h), Shrewsbury (a), Fleetwood (h), Burton Albion (a), Peterborough (h), Stevenage (h), Exeter City (a)
Lincoln City: Bristol Rovers (h), Oxford United (a), Leyton Orient (h), Carlisle (a), Reading (a), Wigan Athletic (h), Cheltenham (a), Portsmouth (h)
Leyton Orient: Stevenage (a), Lincoln City (a), Peterborough (h), Cheltenham (h), Exeter City (h), Derby County (a), Fleetwood (h), Shrewsbury (a)
Out of those schedules, Blackpool look like they face the easiest run in, while Leyton Orient might have the most challenging fixtures left, with four tough matches against promotion hopefuls.
So, the state of play: the O’s have eight games left with six points to make up and four teams to pass up for a shot at the second tier. But only one game absolutely matters right now: Saturday’s tilt against Stevenage. It’s about as must-win as they come.
No one said promotion battles would be easy.
Leyton Laureate, a LOFC blog 